A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
